338) The Growth Report: Strategies For Sustained Growth And Inclusive Development

Aos que se interessam por crescimento e distribuição, transcrevo abaixo informação essencial para conhecer o conteúdo e acessar o relatório de comissao de 21 "sábios" que trabalharam no relatorio do Banco Mundial.
Não se trata, obviamente, de uma prescrição liberal, mas que tenta combinar as virtudes da economia de mercado com políticas de Estado, como aliás corresponderia à maioria dos membros da Comissao, alguns "planejadores" estatais.
Creio, de toda forma, que se trata de uma boa contribuição para uma reflexão ponderada sobre esse tema.
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Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Commission on Growth and Development
The Growth Report: Strategies For Sustained Growth And Inclusive Development
(Washington: The World Bank, released: May 2008)

Compilação efetuada por:
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
23 Maio 2008

Links:
1) To the World Bank page of the report
2) To the Slide Show of the presentation
3) To a PDF presentation
4) To a Video Presentation

Overview of the Report:
New Report Sheds Light on Success Strategies of Fast-Growing Countries

Related Links
* Report: Strategies For Sustained Growth And Inclusive Development
* Story: Global Imbalances
* Story: Global Warming
* Story: Income Inequality
* Press Release: Launch of Growth Commission Report

Overview:

* 13 countries averaged 7% growth for 25 years or more after World War II.
* High, sustained growth can be achieved in other countries, argues report.
* Industrialized countries should grant African countries trade preferences to manufactured exports to help them overcome the disadvantages of being late starters.

May 21, 2008 — South Korea was once one of Asia’s poorest countries. Today, it’s one of the wealthiest, a high-income country with a standard of living about the same as Slovenia, Israel, or Saudi Arabia, and higher than in the Czech Republic, Oman or Portugal.

South Korea is one of only 13 countries that managed to pull off a kind of miracle in the post World War II era—economic growth averaging 7 percent or more for at least 25 years in a row, according to the “Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development.” The report was prepared by the Commission on Growth and Development, an independent body supported by Australia, Sweden, the Netherlands, United Kingdom, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the World Bank Group.

High, long-lived growth isn’t easily achieved, but the report by some of the world’s top policy-makers and thinkers argues it can be repeated in other countries, thereby giving them a chance to reduce poverty and improve opportunity and quality of life for their citizens.

“The Growth Report,” released today in London, Cairo, Cape Town, New York and St. Kitts, seeks to unlock the growth strategies of high growth countries and highlight the potential of economic growth to improve lives around the globe. Some 3 billion people have been able to enjoy the fruits of growth in the post-war period, and another 2 billion could also benefit from the global economy.

“There is, perhaps for the first time in history, a reasonable chance of transforming the quality of life and the creative opportunities for the vast majority of humanity,” says Chairman Michael Spence, one of two Nobel Laureates on the 21-member commission comprising leaders from business, government and academia.

“Economic growth is absolutely important to eradicate poverty and uplift the standard of living of people,” adds Gon Chok Tong, Chairman of Monetary Policy in Singapore, one of six countries that achieved high income status through sustained high growth.

The Growth Report identifies some of the distinctive characteristics of high-growth countries and highlights the importance of leadership and governance, economic security, competition, sound fiscal and monetary policy, and public investment in health and education. It also looks at global trends and their impact on growth, including global warming, rising prices, rising income inequality, and labor migration.

No Silver Bullets

“We are acutely aware that there are no silver bullets to create long-running, inclusive growth, and that no single paradigm exists,” says Commission Vice Chair Danny Leipziger, who is also Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) at the World Bank.

The report’s major goal is to give policy makers in developing countries an opportunity to figure out the right mix of policy ingredients for their own country, adds Leipziger.

Nevertheless, the 13 countries had at least five things in common. Each country:

* Fully exploited the world economy
* Maintained macroeconomic stability
* Mustered high rates of saving and investment
* Let markets allocate resources
* Had committed, credible and capable governments

Six countries, including Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malta, Singapore and Taiwan, China, sustained high growth long enough to reach high income status, but several others lost momentum long before catching up to the world’s leading economies.

Brazil, one of the first countries to achieve sustained high growth, began to slow down in 1980. The country suffered inflation and debt overhang from the 1973 oil shock. Instead of seeking to expand exports, the country turned inward in 1974 and extended a policy of sheltering light manufacturing domestic industries to heavy industries and capital goods production so they could compete in the home market against foreign rivals. Brazil’s exchange rate appreciated dramatically and its exporters lost much of the ground they’d gained in previous decades. When interest rates spiked in 1979, Brazil was plunged into a debt crisis from which it took a decade to emerge, says the report.

The report observes that domestic demand is no substitute for the “expansive global market.”

“For growth to be sustained, it must be growth that takes into account that we are living in a more and more globalized world,” says Danuta Hubner, European Commissioner for Regional Policy. “We need growth that is using all the opportunities that are offered by the global economy.”

Advice for Africa and Latin America

The Growth Report also offers specific recommendations for Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, both of which face challenges to sustained growth. Sub-Saharan Africa must contend with “unhelpful borders, bequeathed by colonialism, and the mixed blessing of unusually rich natural resources.” In Latin America, countries with incomes as high as $4,000 a head “nevertheless contain large numbers of poor people, who lack access to formal jobs, capital markets and public services.”

Among the advice for Sub-Saharan Africa: encourage regional cooperation and regional integration—seen as particularly important for landlocked countries; give citizens access to secure channels for saving and credit; and adopt best practices for the exploitation of natural resources.

The Commission also calls for industrialized countries to grant African countries time-bound trade preferences to manufactured exports to help them overcome the disadvantages of being late starters, and to finance the expansion of Africa’s tertiary education to make up for brain drain.

Latin America needs to increase savings rates and to transition to a more knowledge and capital-intensive economy, says the report. While middle income countries in Latin America demonstrate that growth is not sufficient in itself to reduce poverty, progress can be made by redistributing income, assets or access to services, it adds.

“I do believe that a lot is gained by generating inclusiveness, by making sure that growth is widely shared,” says Nobel Laureate Robert Solow. “Leadership and governance cannot do the job by itself unless it can generate support from wide parts of the population.”

Global Imbalances:

May 21, 2008 — The growing wealth and influence of the developing world in the global economy means these countries share a “joint responsibility” for the stability of the global financial system, says the Growth Report.

Currently, no international institution allows developing countries to “discharge this responsibility properly,” the report observes. Given the increasing importance of new global players, it argues for a rebalancing of global responsibilities and representation.

“As the number of influential countries grows, it becomes all the more important to establish a mechanism for coordinating their policies,” says the report.

At $3.2 trillion, China’s economy is now about 20 percent the size of the United States economy. India’s economy is approaching $1 trillion. By mid-2007, reserves held by central banks were about $4.5 trillion, with China’s alone at $1.6 trillion and rising.

At the same time, US savings rates are low, while China’s reserve accumulations are continuing at the same pace, and its trade surplus is rising rapidly. Currencies that track the dollar (or the yuan) have largely accompanied the American currency on its descent, in defiance of their underlying fundamentals.

Global Economy Outrunning Capacity to Manage It

Several markets have become more opaque and difficult to regulate, as the current credit crisis in the US and Europe illustrates, says the report. The responsibilities of central banks “now extend well beyond inflation to credit crunches, growth slowdowns, asset bubbles, and, in some cases, exchange rates.”

“It is clear to most observers that the global economy has outrun our capacity to manage it,” the report says. “This creates risks for developing countries in particular, because they are most vulnerable to sudden stoppages of credit, and sudden switches of international demand or supply.”

Just as the credit crunch is affecting advanced economies, the report also stresses the importance of a strong financial system in developing and countries and argues for careful supervision of the banking sector to prevent banks expanding credit too far, and the removal of capital controls only in step with the financial market’s maturity.

An international institution that gave emerging economies their due would monitor the financial system for financial strains, imbalances, and fragilities, allowing it to act early to reduce the chances of abrupt adjustments, and to “muster a timely and co-ordinated response to those crises it failed to anticipate, such as rising food prices.”

Global Warming:

May 21, 2008—Can all developing countries grow as fast as the fastest growing economies without causing global greenhouse gases to spiral out of control?

The answer is no, unless technology and new techniques are used to “radically” reduce the amount of energy needed to produce goods, as well as cut CO2 emissions, says the Growth Report. “That is the only way developing countries can grow rapidly without subjecting the world to potentially catastrophic global warming,” it adds.

Climate models suggest coastal erosion from global warming may threaten more than 1 million people by 2050 in the Nile delta in Egypt, the Mekong delta in Vietnam, and the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, notes the report.

It adds that fast-growing developing countries like China and India that generate a lot of CO2 must take part in efforts to mitigate global warming if the world is to succeed. However, they are resisting, partly because committing to cut emissions might threaten their growth, and partly because they consider such commitments unfair as most of the CO2 in the atmosphere was generated by high income countries.

The report says that uncertainties about the impact of climate change and the cost of cutting carbon will be resolved over time. The world, therefore, should not lock itself into precise, quantitative commitments for the far-flung future. “It should anticipate that information will improve—and leave some options open.”

“In particular, for developing countries that are on a fast growth trajectory, we need to be very sensitive on the way in which targets are set for them and on the way in which technology and financial systems are applied to countries,” says Lord John Browne, former CEO of British Petroleum.

Global Carbon Tax or ‘Cap and Trade’ Urged

Nations should instead consider a global carbon tax or a “cap and trade” system that would allow countries to emit a given amount of CO2 or sell permits to other countries. Enough greenhouse gas permits should be awarded to developing countries to allow them to grow, says the report.

A carbon tax or cap and trade system will take years to design, negotiate and implement, it adds. In the meantime, advanced nations should cut emissions aggressively and pay more generous subsidies to energy efficiency and carbon reduction technologies.

Income Inequality

May 21, 2008 — Countries should combat rising income inequalities across the globe with social insurance or similar policies to support workers rather than turning to protectionism of industry, says the new Growth Commission Report.

Protecting companies and jobs from competition will slow economic progress, the report argues. “A better approach is to protect people and incomes, providing support to workers between jobs and preserving their access to essential services during these transitions.”

Policy-makers in most countries “have done too little to ameliorate” the effects of two trends: the rapid movement of economic activity from one location to another; and the impact of labor-saving technologies, particularly in the sphere of information-processing.

“Both trends add to the economic growth. But both also pose a potential threat to some people’s jobs and job security,” says the report.

Much of the rise in income inequality is attributed to globalization. “The result is a growing skepticism about the benefits of globalization, in developing and developed countries alike,” the report notes.

In political terms, these attitudes can translate easily into protectionist sentiment. The Doha Round of global trade talks, seen as a test of the world’s commitment to a flexible multilateral trading system, were supposed to be completed by 2004 but are still going on, the report notes.

Governments May Need to Adapt Safety Nets

“With enough effort from governments and international organizations, the benefits of the global economy could be distributed widely across nations and within them,” says the report. “The net welfare gains from openness provide ample resources to compensate globalization’s casualties, if governments have the political will to manage the problem. At the moment the rhetoric is consistent with this priority, but the actions are not.”

Governments may have to change their domestic policies to shore up support for an open global economy, the report adds. That might mean adapting the country’s safety nets, social insurance systems, and tax system.

“The alternative approach is distinctly worse. It is to preserve domestic systems in aspic and to shy away from the global economy itself.”

“Some kind of competition is absolutely essential at every stage of economic development,” says Robert Solow, Nobel Laureate and a member of the Growth Commission.

The Growth Report
Strategies For Sustained Growth And Inclusive Development

The Commission on Growth and Development released its final report,The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development,which looks at how developing countries can achieve fast sustained and equitable growth.

According to the Commission, fast sustained growth is not a miracle; it is attainable for developing countries with the "right mix of ingredients." Countries need leaders who are committed to achieving growth and who can take advantage of opportunities from the global economy. They also need to know about the levels of incentives and public investments that are necessary for private investment to take off and ensure the long-term diversification of the economy and its integration in the global economy.

"We chose to focus on growth because we think that it is a necessary condition for the achievement of a wide range of objectives that people and societies care about. One of them is obviously poverty reduction, but there are even deeper ones. Health, productive employment, the opportunity to be creative, all kinds of things that really matter to people seem to depend heavily on the availability of resources and income, so that they don’t spend most of their time desperately trying to keep their families alive."
Michael Spence,
Chair, Commission on Growth and Development

Table of Contents: The GROWTH Report*

Part One
Preface[PDF]
Overview [PDF]
Introduction [PDF]

Part 1. Sustained, High Growth in the Postwar Period [PDF]

Part 2. The Policy Ingredients of Growth Strategies [PDF]

Part 3. Growth Challenges in Specific Country Contexts [PDF]

Part 4. New Global Trends [PDF]

Part Two
Statistical Appendix: The World Economy and Developing Countries Since WWII [PDF]

Report Highlights
Overview

The Growth Report was written over two years during which the 21 Commissioners interacted and consulted with, and learned from leading academics, business leaders, policy makers, and NGOs. The report reflects the learning over this period, and is informed by the Commission members' own experiences.

Engagement with the Global Economy

The Growth Report sees engagement with the global economy as crucial to future growth with strategies that rely exclusively on domestic demand having limited time spans.

The world economy offers developing countries a deep, elastic market for their exports, with a strong export sector a critical ingredient of high growth, especially in the early stages

Interaction with the global economy also allows fast-growing economies to import ideas, technologies and know-how from the rest of the world. Foreign direct investment and foreign education, which often creates lasting international networks, are viewed as particularly important in the Report.

Leadership & Governance

The Growth Report finds that successful, high-growth economies share the characteristics of credible, inclusive and pragmatic governments. While governments should not try to do too much, to try to replace markets or to close the economy off from the rest of the world, they still play an important role. It falls to the government, for example, to maintain price stability and fiscal responsibility, both of which influence the risks and returns faced by private investors.

Policymakers have to choose a growth strategy, communicate their goals to the public, and ensure that they have the populace's tacit support through a convincing that the future rewards are worth the effort, thrift and economic upheaval.

A long planning horizon and pragmatic approach to government is also crucial as is a culture of honest public service. Administration must attract and retain talented people, by offering better pay, promotions and recognition to officials who can measurably improve the public sector's performance. The Report also recommends an increase in the number of international exchanges for civil servants. More>
Last Updated ( Friday, 23 May 2008 )

Commissioners

The Commission on Growth and Development comprises 21 members, who are distinguished practitioners from government, business and policy making committed to the goals of fostering faster convergence of incomes between rich and poor countries.

The role of the Commission members is to provide inputs, advice, and guidance to the preparation of the final report, which they will ultimately endorse. The report’s goal is to bring forth the best understanding of the growth challenges faced by developing countries, and transform what is now known about growth into a framework that can be used by those who make economic policy decisions.

CHAIR
Michael Spence
Nobel Laureate and Professor Emeritus
Stanford University, UNITED STATES

VICE-CHAIR
Danny Leipziger
Vice-President & Head of Network
World Bank, UNITED STATES

Montek Singh Ahluwalia
Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission
INDIA

Edmar Bacha
Director of the Casa Das Garças Institute for Economic Policy Studies
BRAZIL

Dr. Boediono
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs
INDONESIA

Lord John Browne
Former Chief Executive Officer,
British Petroleum
GREAT BRITAIN

Kemal Dervis
Administrator of the UNDP Programa Pos-Grad.Rel.Int. Unesp-Unicamp-PUC-SP Turkey

Alejandro Foxley
Minister of Foreign Affairs in Chile
CHILE

Han Duck Soo
Former Prime Minister
REPUBLIC OF KOREA

Goh Chok Tong
Senior Minister and Chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore
SINGAPORE

Danuta Hübner
European Commissioner for Regional Policy
POLAND

Carin Jämtin
Former Minister for International Development
SWEDEN

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
Former Prime Minister of Peru
PERU

Trevor Manuel
Minister of Finance of South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA

Mahmoud Mohieldin
Minister of Investment of Egypt
EGYPT

Ngozi N. Okonjo-Iweala
Managing Director, World Bank
NIGERIA

Robert Rubin
Chairman, Citigroup
UNITED STATES

Robert Solow
Nobel Laureate and Professor Emeritus
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
UNITED STATES

Sir K. Dwight Venner
Governor of the Eastern Caribbean Bank
SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS

Ernesto Zedillo
Director of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization
MEXICO

Zhou Xiaochuan
Governor of the People's Bank of China
CHINA

The Commission

Ideas Informing Action

Launched in April 2006, the Commission on Growth and Development brings together twenty-one leading practitioners from government, business and the policymaking arenas, mostly from the developing world. The Commission is chaired by Nobel Laureate Michael Spence, former Dean of the Stanford Graduate Business School, and Danny Leipziger, Vice-President, World Bank, is the Commission's Vice-Chair.

Over a period of two years the Commission will seek to gather the best understanding there is about the policies and strategies that underlie rapid and sustained economic growth and poverty reduction. The Commission's audience is the leaders of developing countries.

The Commission is supported by the Governments of Australia, Sweden, the Netherlands, and United Kingdom, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the World Bank.
Motivation

The Commission has been brought together by the belief that the world's challenges - poverty, environment, misunderstandings within and between nations, vast differences in living standards within and across countries - are best met in conditions of rising and sustained prosperity, and expanding economic opportunities.

The Commission was established "to take stock of the state of theoretical and empirical knowledge on economic growth with a view to drawing implications for policy for the current and next generation of policymakers." Its creation responds to:

1. the sense that poverty cannot be reduced in isolation of economic growth, and that that link has been missing in the minds and strategies of many;
2. growing evidence that the economic and social forces underlying rapid and sustained growth are much less well understood than generally thought - economic advice to developing countries has been given with more confidence that justified by the state of knowledge;
3. realization that the accumulation of highly relevant (both successful and unsuccessful) growth experiences over the past 20 years provides a unique source of learning; and
4. growing awareness that, except for China and India, and other rapidly growing economists in East Asia, developing countries need to accelerate their rates of growth significantly for their incomes to catch up with income levels in industrialized countries, and for the world to achieve a better balance in the distribution of wealth and opportunity.

The Commission's activities have taken place at three levels: 1) the Commission defined the themes and issues it thinks important for growth and development; 2) the Commission invited world renowed academics, practitioners and experts to author papers exploring the state of knowledge in these themes and issues; those were reviewed and discussed at the Commission workshops; and 3) a working group which interacts with academics and Commissioners, reviews and comments on papers throughout the process. The working group support the Chairman in its drafting of the final report by reviewing interim drafts and providing comments. The Commission is funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the governemnts of Australia, Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, and the World Bank.

Our Work

Activities of the Commission on Growth and Development take place at three levels:

1. The Commission defines the themes and issues that believes important for understanding of growth and development. It also guides and reviews the work carried out under its auspices, and endorses the final report. Individual Commission members may also sponsor additional work on issues of particular interest to them.

2. The Commission invites academics—leading experts on the themes and issues identified in the Statement of Purpose —to author papers exploring the state of knowledge in their respective areas of expertise, and its implications on public policy, economic growth and development. The Commission will be asked to take a view and endorse the final report, and to take note and comment on the academic papers. It will not, however, be asked to endorse the thematic papers and case studies . The papers will be reviewed and discussed in regional conferences, to which Commission members are invited, and published separately. Several academics agreed to participate in the project with the understanding that they would have direct and non-intermediated exchanges with the Commission.

3. A Working Group interacts with academics and Commission members, commissions thematic papers and country case studies, reviews and comments on them throughout the process and drafts the final report.